Air Cargo Growth Signals End Of World Recession

SEATTLE, June 8, 1995 -- World air cargo traffic was up more than 12 percent in 1994 providing a strong indicator that the world economy is recovering, according to Carola Parker, Boeing Commercial Airplane Group regional director of marketing. Parker said air cargo yields also moved up slightly, reversing a long downward trend.

Parker said trends in air cargo tend to indicate wider economic patterns, often leading the world into and out of recession. "A key reason for the growth last year was that most countries had moved through their economic low point and had begun to grow, adding strength and momentum to the recovery. Growth slowed somewhat in the last half of 1994, but with the world economy improving, we expect continued growth in air cargo," she said.

Parker also noted that declining passenger yields also have forced airlines to look to cargo for additional revenue opportunities.

Asian markets continued to experience the highest rates of growth in 1994, Parker said, with Asia to North America traffic growing 13.9 percent and Europe to Asia volumes increasing by 13.2 percent. Traffic between Europe and North America grew 13.5 percent, while the U.S. domestic market grew by 11.7 percent.

Parker said international express service is emerging as a major factor in cargo traffic, mirroring its success in the U.S. market. International express traffic grew 25 percent over 1993 and is projected to grow at 18 percent per year, capturing a 31 percent market share by 2014.

Boeing's 20-year outlook for the air cargo industry forecasts a 6.6 percent annual growth rate, up slightly from last year's prediction, Parker said. To handle that volume, nearly 600 more large-capacity freighters (more than 50 tonnes) will be required by 2014. With most 707s and DC-8s retiring from service, 757-size airplanes also will be added -- increasing the medium-size fleet by about 150 airplanes.